December 21, 2007: Romney head-to-head

I'm not much for head-to-head polls this far ahead of the election (or even nomination) but Republicans ought to take note of the poor showing of Mitt Romney in this Zogby Poll.

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Notice Obama is beating everyone.

Go Obama, go Obama, go Obama

Posted by: promoguy at December 21, 2007 10:32 AM

This is way too early to determine that. Not only will the issues change before election day, but you'll see name recognition and awareness go way up next year.

When the nominees are more or less selected, you'll see everyone change their emphasis to reflect the new audience that they're approaching. Even guys like Fred Thompson, who has been remarkably consistent in his positions for decades, would shift his rhetoric to dwell on different issues more important to the general electorate. That changes how people perceive him and therefore his poll results.

These kind of direct matchups aren't really statistically valid anyway. What I'd love to do is develop a perceptual map for the GOP, dems and general electorate. Corporations use these to identify what people consider to be important. For packaged goods like toilet paper, you can predict market share to within +/- .5%. You can also do tricks like saying "ok say I move my style/positions over on the map a bit, what poll numbers would I get?" I don't see any reason why the technique wouldn't work for politicians.

Posted by: Wellspring at December 21, 2007 4:15 PM

This Zogby poll also has Edwards beating the Repubs to a surprisingly close match of the Obama numbers. It is therefore necessary for me to consider this poll trash, garbage. Probably polled "likely voters" in Demo ZIP codes.

Posted by: TomTom at December 21, 2007 9:45 PM

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