April 13, 2007: Independents' Day on Gallup

The latest Gallup Poll shows 33% of Americans identify as Democrats, 28% as Republicans and 37.5% as Independents. The way things are going nowadays - look for that last number to grow.

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You have Democrats and Republicans reversed.

Posted by: chuck at April 13, 2007 8:37 AM

Of course, American "Independents" tend to be too lazy to replace the parties and just hold their nose and vote. ;-)

Maybe they'll eventually get independent enough to leave both parties behind.

Posted by: dclydew at April 13, 2007 8:54 AM

The subheading of the article - By a 50% to 35% margin, Americans want Democrats to win in 2008 - is even more significant than the edge the Dems have in party affiliation. If that 15% margin holds, the Democrats' advantage going into the 2008 election will be insurmountable.
That is, if Gallup can be trusted (not so sure).

Posted by: ricpic at April 13, 2007 10:22 AM

the Democrats' advantage going into the 2008 election will be insurmountable.

I think that will depend heavily on who they select to run. I can't help but hope that Hillary won't appeal to 50% of Americans.

Posted by: dclydew at April 13, 2007 11:30 AM

I am not sure how accurate these numbers are. It would seem to me that if they were really accurate Democrats would be polling better against people like McCain or Gulliani.

Everyone blames this loss of support for Republicans on the war, I think that some people are tired of the right. I know that hardliners on issues like immigration do not want to hear it, but their refusal to compromise seemed too ideological to a lot of folks.

Those Independents accept the inevitability of the two party system and they go from one to the other in an attempt to bring the country back from the edge. I would say that if Pelosi and her friends in Congress keep up their present efforts to run the Executive....people might start to go right again.

However, this poll should remind people that those party loyalties are not written in stone. Not so long ago people were saying the Democrats were finished. I remember thinking, if they can survive the Civil War they can survive this. They may not be finished, but they are consumed with partisan bitterness and I think that makes them dangerous right now. I just hope the Republicans do not nominate someone who can not hope to gain the support of these independents.

In truth I don't think the country is 50/50 at all, I think it is in thirds, one third conservative, one third liberal, one third in the middle. And I think it has been that way for awhile.

Posted by: Terrye at April 14, 2007 2:34 AM

Roger,
Actually you have Republicans and Independents reversed.

Posted by: Bostonian at April 15, 2007 8:41 AM

I intend to reserve judgement until 2012. The longer term numbers show it is the Democrats that are in trouble, and if the underlying trends continue, 2008 should be a blip.

Harris Poll

The Harris Poll finds that the Democrats still retain a small lead over the Republicans in party identification, although it has declined in every decade since the 1970s. Based on over 6,000 interviews conducted by telephone last year, one-third (33%) of all adults "consider themselves" to be Democrats, 28% self-identify as Republicans and 24% as Independents.

Of course, we could be seeing a trend bottoming out and we could be arriving a new equilibrium, but I don't think so. I think aging boomers will continue to drive us conservative, and if the Democrats don't get a better handle on foreign policy, it will continue to hurt them as we face a long struggle with political Islam, a possibly resurgent Russia, and a shrinking globe in general.

Not only that, regarding the recent spike in independents, how many Republicans are having trouble 'fessing up' in public - I know I am.

One more bit:

However, the average Democratic lead in party identification has fallen from an average of 21 percentage points in the 1970s, eleven percentage points in the 1980s, and seven points in the 1990s to only five points, so far, in the 2000s. There is no mistaking the huge change in party affiliation that has taken place over the last 30 years..

That's going from a 21% lead to a 5% lead - and if you look closely at the graph in the Gallup article , I think 3-4% of that is a short bounce.

It's like climate analysis, if you take too short a view, you will be sold oceanfront property in Colorado (at least prematurely by a few thousand years).

Posted by: jdwill at April 15, 2007 9:51 AM

The longer term numbers show it is the Democrats that are in trouble, and if the underlying trends continue, 2008 should be a blip.

Well, Mark Twain once said "There are three kinds of lies; Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics." His view seems most correct when applied to politics ;-)

Posted by: dclydew at April 16, 2007 8:26 AM

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