Roger L. Simon: North Korea: The Big Domino

If it's true that North Korea has agreed to disarm (and the devil will not only be in the details but in the actions themselves), this is a huge sea change in the world situation. Without the nuclear Norks, the Iranians, Syrians and Venezuelans are significantly less powerful. PJM calls this a Libya-style agreement, but it is much more than that. If ever the words "stay tuned"meant anything, this is the time.

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From all indications I've seen, their test some months back didn't go all that well.

It just could be that their scientists just can't get it done right, so after an appropiate waiting period and a few noises about another test coming, they are now trying to climb down without losing face.

That's fine, hopefully there's still room in Tenn. next to Libya's stuff for their stuff as well!

Or, it could just be China telling them that the fun and games are over -- or else.

Unfortunately, given what has gone on before, it seems like North Korea is Lucy and the US is Charlie Brown.

John Bolton says it's a BAD IDEA and is exactly the same thing that was agreed to in the Clinton Administration.

It's only addressing one part of the problem--does NOT call for complete disarmament and tells Iran and many others that all you have to do is apply pressure and wait it out and America will give in.

I haven't thought deeply at all about this latest turn of events. But like you, I'll go with Bolton.

I trust Bolton too, but he may not know everything there is to know about this. I suppose time will tell. In truth, there are not many choices.

If NK backs out again, they might well have sealed their own fate. It could also be true that this time the Chinese are pressuring them to live up to their agreement and they need the Chinese.

What's different here is that Rice has deliberately eschewed bilateralism and has deliberately involved all parties that had a role in the 1950-1953 Korean Conflict. In so doing, she gave everyone some skin in the game. That's what Bolton doesn't quite get, and I think that this might just work. His cautionary skepticism is praiseworthy, but the Norks have been squeezed mighty hard and their atomic test was a fizzle. Kim, and his Chinese sponsors, might be ready to deal

What's even more delicious will be the squirms from Democrats as they try to take credit for something they had nothing with which to do.

Oh really? What do the Chinese risk under this arrangement that they didn't risk under the previous one?

The answer doesn't start with "This time, the Chinese are a party to an agreement that depends on their surrogate's actions".

The Chinese won't pay a price when the NoKs break this agreement, just like they didn't pay a price when the NoKs broke the last one.

If the result of breaking this means that Japan gets a nuke the Chinese might well pay a price.

I read that the disarmement is set within a time frame of 60 days as well. I guess that means we will know sooner rather than later if it won't work.

Nixon goes to China, Reagan bonds with Gorby, and now it looks as if Bush is heading to Pyongyang. Sounds like great news if it pans out. Jimmy Carter couldn't have done it better. Its nice that we have a Republican doing this -- if John Kerry had negotiated such a deal, Republicans would be introducing impeachment resolutions.

Unlike the Libyan agreement where all nuclear materials were removed and facilities throughly inspected prior to giving aid, this deal is more on the come.

Expect our "Dear Leader" to try and renegoiate terms along the way. We will see if inspectors have true access.

The only advantage we have here is that the Chinese appear to mean business. But our (i.e. US-Sino) geo-political interests are not aligned long-term.

February 12, 2007: North Korea: The Big Domino

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