Roger L. Simon: Sleepless in you-know-where

The war in the Middle East has never seemed that far way to me because I am tracking it all day long in my work and constantly in communication with people over there, as I have been today with my friend Allison who just did her first podcast with Politics Central, an extremely interesting interview on the state of Israeli politics with Professor Reuven Hazan. It seems their Left has just had a reality check, according to the professor. They backed pulling out of Lebanon and Gaza all their lives - and then when it finally happened, the roof fell in.

So I didn't quite need the gunplay in Seattle this afternoon to bring things home to me. Of course such activities are normally dismissed as the work of lone crazy people. And to a great extent they are. But this particular crazy person, a Pakistani, was simply mimicking the actions of his co-religionists, which are seen elsewhere as almost routine political acts. Why not in Seattle?

I have to admit I am beginning to view the whole world as a battlefield, a far cry from my outlook during my more traditionally liberal "give peace a chance" days. So I wince when I see various rightthinking folk putting the squeeze on Israel for a cease fire, because I have no reason to believe that spells anything but disaster. Hezbollah, a collection of vastly better armed and better trained religious psychopaths with the exact same values and attitudes as the Seattle Pakistani, will simply take the opportunity to resupply and attack again. Why wouldn't they? It's what they are sworn to do and what they believe. God told them it's so.

And yet Israel is expected to stand down. After all, they are the superior "developed" nation. The grown-ups. Actually the whole thing is inherently racist on two levels at once. Jews are treated anti-Semitically (differently from other nations) and the Arabs are treated as irresponsible "Wogs", children essentially. These two are incapable of solving their own problems. Only a multi-national force will save the day.

Oh, really? We know the record of such forces. Why would they change now? Money? Whose? Perhaps theirs.

UPDATE: Gerard was closer to the scene of the crime. As Trotsky so famously said, "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you."

Comments

Comments require registration through TypeKey. Abusive remarks may be deleted. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Roger Simon.

I never thought that in my lifetime an American
Jew would ever live in fear solely because he or
she was Jewish.

Professor Reuven Hazan was interesting, but also damned annoying. He kept trying to make a distinction between the situation in Israel and that of the US in Iraq. How the US can hide the bodies and maintain a war against public opinion, yada, yada, yada. The guy is a US educated academic and sounds like one, desperately trying to rationalize why Israel is morally superior to the US under Bush, how the two situations have nothing in common, all so he can maintain what appears to be distain for the current US administration while supporting Israel's efforts. He had no need to bring Iraq into the discussion, but he did so anyway; trying, I think, to avoid facing the obvious and changing his opinions. Pshaw, the guy needs to grow an intellectual pair.

Roger,
At the rate Israel is going, they might as well stand down, because their tactics and strategy are losing badly.

So far, Hezbollah seems to be the smarter player. They attack Israel with seaming impunity. Israel drops bombs all over the place (resulting in nice video of homes and apartment buildings being trashed), and fire artillery continuously, and Hezbollah just keeps on launching rockets deeper and deeper into Israel.

Using simple and easily predictable tactics, Hezbollah punished the famous Golani brigade - another great propaganda victory - never mind that Hezbollah probably took ten or twenty times the casualties. Israel sent in a raiding party when they should have sent in an army.

Meanwhile Israel has captured two towns (of many in the border zone). They have killed lots of civilians, many of whom were innocent hostages of Hezbollah (such as the inhabitants of Christian villages which Hezbollah used as rocket launching sites while preventing civilians from leaving).

They have managed to unite (for now) the Lebanese against them (80% of Lebanese Christians now support Hezbollah). They have enabled lots of video showing bombing of what appear to be civilian structures (since, of course, Hezbollah hides there). One would think Bomber Harris was running their military.

They have failed to have any dramatic victories in a war where appearances may be more important than substance. The apparently idiotic prime minister wants a 2 km buffer zone, as if that will do anything

They have made extravagant claims (Hezbollah "50% degraded") and strong threats - both of which seem empty. They are looking more like a typical Arab government - all bluster and no capability. It is pathetic and terribly disappointing.

Unless the Israeli government wakes up, RIGHT NOW, they (and hence we) have lost a major battle in the war on terror.

I have to agree with chuck. this all seems a bit self serving to me. And I am no military expert, I do not feel comfortable telling the Israeli military what it should and should not do. I think there are far too many people out there who think they are experts.

The truth is Israel it appears that Israel is making the decision to not press forward with a ground invasion, {I got the impression that the Bush administration had been prepared to give them as much cover as they could if Israel were perpared to go deeper into Lebanon}. It also seems to me that the majority of the people of Lebanon support Hezbellah now, just like they did before this all began.

I do not buy the argument that Israel is making them hate her...obviously they hated her anyway or they would not have warmed to terrorists like Hezbellah in the first place, nor do I buy the argument that Israel is being forced to restrain herself by others. I think the Israelis do not want to get trapped in Lebanon. They have been down that road before and have no desire to travel it again. At the same time I do not buy the argument that if Israel just approached the attack differently and ignored the apartment houses etc {where Hezbellah hides} then the Lebanese would not be united them against them. How would dropping bombs in the country side help? How would tens of thousands of armed men with tanks do less damage or bring an end to the conflict? Especially with Iran and Syria arming Hezbellah using the same infrastructure that the civilians use? Sooner or later those bridges and highways and airports are going to have to be taken out.

Two facts: the Lebanese are already united behind Hezbellah and against Israel..if they were not Hezbellah would not be in a position to start this kind of trouble in the first place.

And..if the Israelis could actually get rid of Hezbellah in a couple of weeks of fighting just by a change in tactics, they would have done that a long time ago.

Maybe Israel is not as adverse to the multinational force as some think and maybe the Lebanese are not as innocent as some think.

Imagine an American KKK militia crossed the border and kidnapped two Mexican soldiers keeping them imprisioned somewhere in Canada then armed with 10,000 rockets began bombing Mexico out of hatred for Catholics, would not Americans demand that the US Government disarm and dismantle the KKK?

I would have hoped that the Lebanese people would demand their government disarm and dismantle what is basically our version of the KKK. Unfortunately, the people of Lebanon have chosen Hizbullah the equalivant of the American KKK party.

The people of Lebanon chose to ignore the threat within and are now held hostage by their very own government.

Could any American imagine that the KKK be given political status to do whatever the hell it wants to do just becasue the KKK gave humanitarian aid to poor white people while at the same time were rounding up blacks and hanging them from trees?

JMOORE: "They have failed to have any dramatic victories in a war where appearances may be more important than substance."

And, please, there's certainly no need to repeat here the innocent Lebanese hostages/civilians mantra from the MSM. War is war, and they've been warned to move the heck out. (And anyone who supported Hizballah's raid into Israel, murder and kidnapping that started this IS the enemy, anyway).

That's a bit strong. The Hez are now using the Palestinian tactic of collecting "traitors." - reports of 100s - though I have not read about summary murders in the street yet, I'd wager we will.

Given that the Hez have not shut down the civilian phone system (they may not be able to), there are clearly a large number of tips flowing to the IDF (and it appears the IDF is calling them house-by-house). These human-shields aren't quite so helpless. As their last (dying) act it appears they are calling in fire on their own address. I hope (expect and demand) that the forces of civilization put paid to this bill - so their sacrifice (for their children and their country's future) is not in vain.

I've enjoyed your "born again" conversion to what many folks would consider to be "conservative" thinking. And, I'd like to help.

I don't know what you think about restricting gun ownership, but think about this:

If the citizens of Seatle were armed, this wouldn't have happened. Sure, this bastard would have gotten a few shots off, but he'd have been quickly overwhelmed by return fire (hard to keep walking around looking for more victims when they're shooting back at you).

Restricting gun ownership (and especially concealed weapons) only empowers evildoers. Do you think this SOB had a permit for his 9mm?

Do you really think the police can protect us from guys like this? Can the police be everywhere, all of the time? Would we want them to be?

"They have killed lots of civilians, many of whom were innocent hostages of Hezbollah (such as the inhabitants of Christian villages which Hezbollah used as rocket launching sites while preventing civilians from leaving)."

So what would be the best way to take them out?
Now that 12 story building in Tyre that the Israeli airforce destroyed had a multiple tube rocket launcher on the top floor targetting Haifa.

I don't know if any in the States have had access to Lebanese TV but there have been some interesting video of massive secondary explosions indicating arsenals in residential areas.
Certainly the Zilzals destroyed in south Beirut put on a display:
http://theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19838223-31477,00.html

So what do the Israelis do? Cry foul and continue to absorb the rain of projectiles on their towns, cities and farming communities?
How does a country maintain its only oil refinery, chemical complex and industry functioning with more than a million of its citizens forced to flee south or sitting in shelters?

If people had paid more attention to the past six years they would have seen that the International community and its UN have done nothing to see that UN resolution 1559 is implemented, the UNIFIL abetting of Hezbollah right from the first kidnapping of soldiers just 5 months after Israel withdrew from Lebanon, to the UN's satisfaction, to the intermittent firing of mortars, rockets and anti-aircraft fire set to explode on the ground over the intervening years.
How many times did the UN permit Hezbollah to rebuild its positions after Israeli actions had destroyed them in contradiction to the "resolution"?
The Syrian pullout after the "Cedar Revolution" was only partial, leaving Hezbollah as their proxy in mind and force.
How does a militia build bunkers under residential areas (under mosques, schools and houses) in a state it supposedly does not control?
How does it aquire the arms and store them without the help of the state?
The president of Lebanon is a Syrian puppet.
Did nobody follow the attempts by the Christians to get him out?
Certainly the "Ich bin ein Hezbolla" put on by Lamoud for the media was no great change for him.

Michelle malkin has the killer's yearbook photo - it says "Peace Be Unto You" below it. There's that religion of peace again.

My prediction: This Friday shooting will disappear down the memory hole just like the 4th of July LAX attack in which an El Al ticket check-in agent was murdered. Few people watch the news on Saturday and judging by CNN's 1 minute report from Seattle (followed by a change of subject - no analysis) the media will not play it up. I suppose the "Tar Heel jihadist" from Iran is another one that didn't get much media play.

Norman Rogers--
Please check your facts. I live in Seattle. I have two guns AND a concealed carry permit. There could be issues that need examining here but gun control laws are not to blame in this case.

I'm not quite as pessimistic as John, but I do believe Israel flinched and missed it's opportunity. The flinch was caused by the momentary influence of caution - a second guess. When Israel decided to act, they needed to go in strong, which I believe they did. But when the going got tough, the PM flinched instead of pressing harder. And now the moment is lost. They won't be able to finish Hezbollah off. It's going to be determined by the international community. And this has never worked before, so I don't expect it to work this time. Hopefully, in 3, 5, or 10 years when Israel has to do it again, the man in charge doesn't flinch. And hopefully Hezbollah doesn't have any much bigger surprises than they did this time.

The Left in Isreal has always maintained tremendous influence over the American Jew who is Leftist which explains why the Left had to hold a teach-in last Sunday in NYC for the purpose dealing with the Jewish Leftist who had fallen for the propaganda that Isreal is a Nazi nation. Anti-war American Jews are apparently leaving the Leftist's anti-war movement because of Hizbullah's attack upon Isreal; their political ideology was turned up-side down.

Hopefully, American Jews will recognize that anti-semitism within progressive Leftist ideology is very real and that the American Jew has actually inadvertantly been supporting the extermination of Isreal for the past three decades.

Why any American Jew continues to support the Democrat Party continues to remain a mystery.

It is hard to see this as a reflexive action by Israel,it is even harder ,considering the amount of surveillance conducted by both sides,that Hezbollah's strength was unknown to Israel.This was a samll,rapidly closing, window of opportunity for Israel to act before Iran acquires nuclear weapons,after that there will be no chance of dealing with Hezbollah.
The Proportionalistas are again using the law enforcement model,if there isn't a clean shot,don't shoot.Unfortunately,Hezbollah is using the civilian population as hostages,although it is a mistake to regard Hezbollah as separate,an army of occupation,they are not,this is where Hezbollah lives,these are their families,homes and businesses which are being struck.
One thing is certain Israel cannot afford to lose,her military prowess will be tarnished for ever,emboldening Arab nations to attack once again.
Leaving Hezbollah militarily capable is not an option since the creature is not going to change,and doubtless Iran will fight to the last Lebonese.

If Israel isn't going to go in with ground troops they might as well get the multi-national force into South Lebanon in a week or two. It's not that I think that the force is going to be that effective. It just seems to be the right PR move. The entire world seems to be set on this tactic and Hezbollah seems to be getting all the benifit of the "oh, forget all the facts , look at the dying children" propaganda barrage by the press. If Hezbollah defies the multi national force and continues their offensive then Israel would have cause to start up the air campaign again. This is a lousy deal for Israel but their economy is taking a huge hit and simply relying on Air Power isn't going to work. Take a week and do as much damage to Hezbollah as possible during the negotiations but then accept the cease fire. Depressing, but realistic.

I was watching the live net feed of Seattle King5 news yesterday evening and captured on video and mentioned by their traffic copter was a group of protestors holding an Anti-Israel banner right at the edge of the police scene.

If these folks happened to be there already, okay, fine, they got lucky. But if they rushed to the scene in order to take advantage of the media frenzy and get on-screen time, I think I'm going to throw up...

As far as syn's comments above, the Democratic Party is a lot more than the the wacky left... Did it ever occur to you that American Jews (most of whom are not super religious, possibly even secular) might be just a little bit uncomfortable with the Republican social agenda and politics of the Christianists who are now in bed with the right? You know that saying about all politics being local... And the Republican Party doesn't exactly have a monopoly on support for Israel... It wasn't all that long ago that American Jews were shaking in their boots at the likes of Bush Sr, James Baker and the Arabists. I'm not comfortable with the nutcases on either side of the spectrum and personally feel that this country is a lot poorer for increasing polarizaton of our political system, so please spare me the ad hominum political attacks and stick to the issues.

In the Asia Times, Spengler's article's over the last several months thinks these times similar to the precursors of WW1 where countries and very smart politicians could see what was coming but couldn't stop the momentum towards war.

The intemperance of the Moslem's where if you don't join them, they trash you, kill you, sell your women and kids and blow up things so that they can have 72 virgins is something out of Mad Magizine you'd think but unfortunantly its real. Its but a matter of time until the [put in your favorite death cult] kill a couple of thousand Jewish children or drop some horrors from sky that wipes out Israeli cities; the slagging starts at that time. Might even happen here, the Seattle thing is but an indicator of what might be coming. We have Jihadists in Canada ready to kill the Kaffar [that's you] and we have them here and they are trembling with the expectation of nirvana and they only have to cut off your head to reach paradise. Its like a religion that Charlie Manson could fit right into isn't it?

Iran, the great promoter of Terrorism is about to get the means to blow Seattle off the map, the question is do we wait until after the event or to take care of the problem before [put your city] goes up in a bang? Hard to deal with people who say, "we love death like you like life;"they don't leave many options do they?

My considered opinion is that anyone who uses the word "Christianists" is part of the nutcase left. Yes, there are plenty of Jews, secular and otherwise, in that category, not to mention Andrew Sullivan. So what else is new?

Chuck, I apologize if I offended you with my un-PC terminology. Would you prefer "religious right"? Seriously, it makes no difference to me... Keep in mind that I'm not using this term to paint the entire spectrum of the "right" (whatever that means anymore), just a portion of it.

I may be socially liberal, but I'm not registered with any political party some of my other views may surprise you... I actually agree with a reasonable amount of what you write here. You can lump me in with the loony left if it makes you feel better, but you'll have to excuse me while I go and laugh my ass off.

Look, there's a solution to all this--just wear a turban when you go outside (tip: if you fold it just right, the "Holiday Inn" doesn't show).

Buddy,You forgot the instructions
If anything couls demoralise the Mullahs,this is it!

From every Islamic country comes the voice of the imams and mullahs and the jihadis telling us what they want to do. They want all Jews out of Israel. They want to destroy the Great Satan, the U.S. and if it takes millenia, they have the patience and the will to do it. This is a 1,400 year old war that most politicians and law enforcement agencies are clueless about and too politically correct to investigate.

We refuse to believe these Muslims or read their political books, the Koran, the Hadith of Bukhari, the Sirah by Ibn Ishaq, and the Reliance of the Traveller (about their Sharia law which they must uphold and which is incompatible with the U.S. Constitution).

The Israelis are clueless too and don't seem to be able to connect the dots from Lebanon, to Bali, to Beslan, to Madrid, to London, to New York, to North Carolina jihad by suv, to the DC snipers to Seattle . . . The world wide jihad started a while back and few want to believe it.

You only offended me in general terms as I am an atheist. However, Christianist is a derogatory term like kike, dago, greaser, mickey, or nigger, except that is strikes me as more artificial. I mean, a kike is a Jew, a greaser is a Mexican, but what exactly is a Christianist? For that matter, what exactly is the religious right? Do the Amish qualify? After all, they turned out in significant numbers for Bush in Ohio. How about evangelicals of the socialist sort or the many evangelicals who are diehard Democrats? I don't think Christianists is a useful term in serious discussion, although it does serve as a useful substitute for poo when folks feel the urge to throw something nasty.

At some point in the future, the world will wake up, and this cult will begin being shunned and ridiculed just as were the previous fascisms (except for Communism, which escaped somehow and has kept the psychological door open for the jihad).

When the free-world governments start the public-service campaigns and create the "war-on-jihad" bureaucracies alongside the war-on-drugs and poverty and whatnot, that's when we start driving it back underground where it has lurked for the last few centuries as a sort of vampire waiting for the west to develop digital communication and pathological tolerance.

(PS, PeterUK, thanks for the info--luv the model, she seems deliriously thrilled!)

We may in the end have to start treating the Koran as we do "Mein Kampf" or "The Turner Diaries" or Hustler magazine. May need a "Just Say Horsesh*t" campaign. Ridicule the infernal thing on billboards and in Public Service Announcements. Print it on toilet paper.

I know, horrors, how can I say such things when there are so many fine upstanding Muslims in the world.

I say, horsesh*t, they're just like the Lebanese who were apparently content to watch silently forever as Hez fired missiles into Israeli civilians. When they finally get called on it, it's "Who, Me?"

I suspect Hazan stays on the America-is-wrong-in-Iraq topic is to hold street cred with leftists that he's not some hated neocon. He is hoping to advance his own cause by not alienating potential converts.

Wait until he gets a load of what those potential converts say about him for betraying the cause.

And how many thousands of innocent civilians have been killed in recent years by the U.S. and the U.K. in Serbia, Afgahanistan and Iraq?

When gentiles fight wars (wars even where they are not directly threatened), the death of civilians is shrugged off. When Jews fight wars, civilians are not expected to die, and when they do, all the old anti-Semitic hatreds shoot straight to the surface in the twinkling of an eye.

Roger is quite right: "Jews are treated anti-Semitically (differently from other nations)"

While you make comparisons between the man responsible for one of the worst genocides of the 20th century and IDF commanders, I really do not believe your views can be given much if any credibility.

The United States possesses the most powerful military machine the world has ever seen. After years on the ground in Iraq and having expended countless billions of dollars, it has achieved little apart from a bloody nose and an ugly civil war. And yet, tiny little Israel, bound hand and foot by the anti-Semitic Europeans and even its erstwhile dithering ally in North America, is expected to defeat in nothing flat a very well-trained enemy with sophisticated weapons which has had six years to dig in courtesy of a world that doesn't give a tinker's cuss whether the Jewish state survives or not.

Pooh, perfectly said, except that something has been accomplished in Iraq, if you believe as I do that we would all be much, much worse off at this point in time if Saddam were still in power.

..."a world that doesn't give a tinker's cuss whether the Jewish state survives or not." The Jews care and when the Arabs make that great mistake that they are headed for, then you'll see a real war. Everything up to this point has been child's play. I think very soon there will be a lot of nation's capitals looking like Berlin in 1946. A real war is something very few people still alive has ever seen but it is coming again and it will bring a great peace to a violent people just like it did to the Germans and Japanese.

To expand a bit on what Bad Cat said: Washington has one of the oldest shall-issue concealed carry laws in the country, and state preemption (so Seattle can't enact more-restrictive firearm prohibitions.) Consonant with our ancient history with CCW, we have a fairly high rate of licenses issued. So if the victims there were unarmed, it was by their own or their employer's choice, not due to government prohibition.

To the several commenters who think that I'm condemning the Israelis for killing civilians, think again. I support Israel as a liberal democracy in a land of repression and strife. For that matter, there was a possibility that Lebanon could once again become another one.

I was addressing the impact of Israeli actions on the ultimate outcome of their efforts - something in which the whole world has a stake, even if too many decadent Europeans don't recognize it.

This is a war where appearances DO count a whole lot (contrary to assertions). Civilian deaths can be used to incite enemies, and to trigger actions by the confused liberal democracies to "stop the killing". Bragging about having reduced Hezbollah while the rockets rain on Israel is to appear weak - a terribly dangerous appearance in that part of the world. Having the famous Golani brigade clobbered in minor (but bitter) battles is to allow Hezbollah fighters to appear heroic and strong.

Make no mistake - the deaths of civilians are directly the fault of Hezbollah. They are the ones who hide among civilians, and they are the ones who are indiscriminately sending rockets against Israeli civilians with not even a suggestion they are attacking military targets.

However, so far I think Israel's strategy is self defeating. I hope I am wrong. But all you have to do is watch the MSM to see how this is playing out. For that matter, notice how the Sunni Arab leaders have already switched from condemning Hezbollah to condemning Israel - because the propaganda is stirring up their populations.

As for the Bomber Harris comment... Harris thought targeting civilians would break the German will to fight. Israel thought attacking Beirut and other Lebanese targets would cause the Lebanese to turn on Hezbollah. Both of those ideas were wrong (although initially the Israelis were right).

So the question for Israeli strategists (ignoring any issues of morality) is how much international political cost each target is worth. If a 10 storey Beirut apartment building full of Hezbollah supporting civilians has a command bunker under it, should it be demolished? If Hezbollah is rocketing Israel from a Christian village - one where the inhabitants are not allowed to leave - what does Israel do?

I can't answer that question for any particular situation, but it seems that Israel has chosen the bombing too often, with predictable political results (although we really won't know what the overall impact on the War on Terror or WW-III is for a while).

My (admittedly amateur) view is that Israel should have launched a large ground invasion that punched through Hizballah defenses at one or two points, then spread out along the Litani river (more or less), trapping Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Then the Hizballah fighters could have been reduced or starved of ammunition. Beirut should have been left alone. The interdiction of flows from Syria should (and apparently was) done.

We live in a world of instant communications makes the temptation to play armchair quarterback greater than ever. But my guess is that we know very little about what is going on in this war at the moment. Many assumptions people have made will be turned upside down in the weeks and months to come.

Chuck, point taken, but whatever you call it, Jewish institutions in this country are largely nervous about it.

John Moore, is there any strategy the Israelis could have followed that wouldn't have eventually stirred up the "Arab street"? I'm sure the Israelis are well aware that the condemnation of Hezbollah by any area regime was done so for self-serving purposes and not for any new-found love for the Jewish State...

I hope you are right. I fear you are wrong. I hope my assertions of Israeli mistakes are wrong.

I am less concerned about the "Arab street" than I am about Lebanon and Europe, although I take the reversal of the Arab leaders as an indication of the psychological consequences of the Israeli tactics. Several times Israel has been forced by international pressure to stop too soon.

I think they might have been able to do better by relying less on bombing and more on the kind of daring tactics they have demonstrated in the past. A question to ask is what would Ariel Sharon, a long time professional military man, have done? But ultimately, like usual, they are in a poor situation, no matter what they do.

Asymmetric warfare is one of the toughest problems in the WOT. It plays to the weakness of democracies, and the foolishness of those who imagine that war can be fought surgically.

Pooh: Bomber Harris responsible for one of the worst genocides in the 20th century?

No one likes total war; but while the Brits (Harris was hardly alone) didn't start it, they at least had the nerve to finish it. To call what they did genocide is implicitly to compare it to the Holocaust. No such moral equivalence can be made by a serious person, even those who argue British tactics were unnecessarily murderous.

And what do you think will happen if Hezbollah/Iran wins this latest round? Israel will have to become the kind of killing state you seem to think Jews simply are not, or it will be wiped into the sea. The revulsion towards Bomber Harris is a quintessential form of post-WWII white guilt. This guilt may protect us from western arrogance but it does nothing to stop those full of a suicidal apocalyptic fury, people who may already have the bomb. I fear no one will be left righteous after this war is over.

I disagree. Israel had to bomb the infrastrucutre. And lest you forget, Beirut was not bombed, only a small few block area was devastated...in the city and the southern suburbs.

It's not what Israel does. It's what the world says Israel does that seems to matter most. The coverage inside America of this war is at least tolerable. But the Arab world presents it completely differently as does the stupid BBC. We just have to live with that and put out fires whenever they flare up.

I don't really care how this conflict ends except for one thing. By the time the fighting is over Hezbollah should not have the ability to lob rockets into Israel anymore. Period. And I don't think diplomacy is able to manage that.

We're all going at it the wrong way as far as our own propaganda, real or wished-for, goes. We should NOT wish to criticize Islam--that's for the muslims to do. Talking about right and wrong or international law or Israel's right to exist won't work either because the muslim world has different concepts of those things than we have.

We should instead point out in any way possible that the extremists thought is hurting muslims more than it's hurting Jews and the West.

Once the muslim world understands that--and it will take a LONG time--then they can start questioning themselves.

Hezbollah offers you social services, feeds you, educates you, clothes you. How do their rockets and missiles put food on your table?

To the contrary we should attack Shari'a, islamism, and its islamic support from all directions and by all methods. The endless arabesques of excruciating horror, the grinding theocratic tyranny and terror, murdering, torturing, and maiming Muslims themselves first of all -- especially the ones who criticize it. That others mince words does not help the reformers. It helps nobody that we pander to the delusions of sadistic imams and mullahs, the Muslim clerics, the terror hive queens. It raises fantastically the price in blood which will be paid eventually.

You know me better than that. I support Israel. I question the effectiveness of their tactics, as a proper armchair quarterback does.

As I write this, CNN is running a surprisingly fair piece on the role of psychological warfare (in this case, backing down) in the WOT.

So here's a thought - I'm curious about what people think. Instead of its current approach, imagine that Israel had simply given a fair amount of warning (as it has been doing), and then totally flattened everything in the buffer zone. Quite a few civilians would have been killed, but it would have all happened in a couple of news cycles. I wonder if those who raise hell about this sort of thing would react more strongly (due to the count) or less strongly (because it's only a couple of stories, not continuously dribbled out over weeks).

The question of how to fight asymmetric warfare against terrorists is difficult - whether in Lebanon or Iraq. Do we do our best to avoid civilian casualties in every operation, or give warning and then use the same force we would have used if our target contained only the enemy? That might actually produce fewer deaths in the long run - it might defeat an insurgency more quickly, or it might cause people to fight against being taken hostage, or it might cause terrorists to stop using the tactic because it didn't work. Or... it might cause whoever does it to be declared war criminals by the EU, resulting in prosecution; or, the horrible moral calculus might destroy those who made the decisions.

The action in Bint JBeil is reminiscent of the Chechen tactics which devastated the Russians who had driven into towns unapposed,only to be wiped out when the fighters appeared from nowhere.It is probable that the Israelis recognised this and opted for a more cautious approach.

BTW The Bombing raids on German cities did several very important things,they tied up manpower and materiel,the fighters of the Luftwaffe and thousands of flak guns were kept from the Russian front.The 88mm flak gun was also the most lethal anti-tank gun of WWII,anything which enabled the Red Army to more efficiently mince up the Wehrmacht was an important part of the war effort.It has to be realised that it was the Russians which bore the brunt of the land war in Europe until the D Day landings,Stalin had been demanding the opening of a second front because although the Russians were winning,losses were horrendous.

John - no one wants to see civilians die and every decent democratic country tries to avoid that. A better question is when you aid and abet terrorists financially, hiding them and their missiles in your spare bedroom, or refuse to demand reformation of Islam's Murder & Mayhem, Inc's jihad are you really a civilian? Like the Germans that never noticed the Holocaust, I'm talking adults not children, are their civilian hands really clean? If civilian deaths becomes so ultimately avoidable that we/Israel are paralyzed, then we lose to the civilian disregarding terrorists. And, who gives a damn at this point what the EU or UN think.

We will never win the WOT unless we totally crush the enemy. Half-measures aren't going to do it.

Hint: Islams's lack of criticism is where we are today. It's reflected in the body count.

One, John there is NO way for Israel to win the PR war. Just look at Jenin or look at the report from one honest though tardy CNN reporter who pointed out that all of the reporting is done with Hezzie minders allowing photos of the one or two buildings hit and then lining up ambulances for a show. Where are the investigative reports showing weapons being transferred in those ambulances? Where are all the brave reporters showing the incessant barrage of Israel from Lebanon, etc. etc. When the enemy controls all the avenues of communication you can't win.

On tactics, given what we've heard about the multi-level bunkers built under the noses of the intrepid UNIF how exactly was Israel supposed to flatten the entire zone? As far as Beirut goes, that's where Hezboallah has their command and control structures as well as major weapons stores, or do you think that those secondary explosions are caused by 4th of July sparklers?

Onecent has it absolutely correct. We have to get over this PC BS and criticize Islam from the roof tops. Let's publish every sermon from every major mosque detailing all of the calls to kill the pigs and dogs. Let's have open LOUD debates about the reality of sharia and jihad. Don't let the CAIR types get away with squishy PC blather and playing the victim. Let the MMM (mythical moderate muslims) speak up and challange the violent fanatical death cultists that preach in their names; or we can know them as truly mythical.

But it seems too me as if we have numerous historical examples to draw from on how to fight asymmetrical warfare. Though at times, it seems as if neither the US nor the Israel's have bothered to look at, much less study, such. Israel has done well in the war's that were defined on nationalistic boundaries. Not so well on the others. Many reasons for the discrepancies.

Every such war is different, but perhaps the question should be how many attempts at such have been successful? And what were the methods used, in those that were successful, to achieve that success. IOW's, how does this present conflict fit in.

Force, in and of itself, is not always a predictor of success. It has worked on occasion. But there are myriad examples of when it did not.

How did we succeed in the Philippines, where we used much force, and the French did not in Algeria, where they used even greater force. What are the dynamics?

Instead of its current approach, imagine that Israel had simply given a fair amount of warning (as it has been doing), and then totally flattened everything in the buffer zone.

I don't think it would have worked very well. If Hizb'ullah is as dug in as reported it would probably not have had a great effect on their troops. And remember that Israel hasn't anything near the firepower the US can bring to bear; for instance, they have no heavy bombers, no B-52's, B-1's, or B-2's. In fact, the last heavy bomber in the IDF/AF seems to have been a B-17. In the first 10 days of this war the AF has been flying about 300 sorties/day and, while I don't think they are at their limit, I don't think they are holding back either.

If you flatten everything, you don't just stop. You then blow away anything that moves. That's where those drones are so handy. Those guys aren't going to sit in the bunkers forever. But again, just tossing out the idea.

As to Israel and the PR war... I agree that they can't win it. Good grief, they had suicide bombers blowing up every few days and the Europeans continued to support the Palestinians and attack Israel.

However, they also cannot ignore it. There are different levels of the PR war, and these can be important.

If Israel really plans to take out Hezbollah, they cannot do that without occupying Lebanon (and probably Syria) for a long time - and they sure aren't going to do that. Alternatively, they can get someone else to do it, and perhaps that is what they are counting on (although don't expect the Lebanese to do it - or even to be able to).

Meanwhile, I have the question: what do they achieve by attacking facilities in Beirut? Presumably it was to take out "infrastructure" - but what infrastructure?

In the old days, taking out command and communication nodes was very effective. Today it may not be. With modern communications, command can be distributed all over the place. Communication systems (assuming that the internet has been taken down in the area) are easy to back up (and I've done a work in that area). Furthermore, the small unit actions probably don't require high level continuous coordination by Hezbollah.

Modern technology has surprises. Civilian systems (COTS) are very sophisticated and it may be hard for military planners to anticipate their use. In the Iraq war, a battalion (?) of Apache helicopters was mission-killed when the Iraqi scouts reported their position, from hearing them fly by, via cell phone.

Many commentators have asserted that weak responses by the US to terrorist activities, starting with Iran's embassy capture in 1979, the Beirut Marine barracks bombing, and the numerous attacks in the 90's greatly aided the Islamofascist terrorist movement. Put another way - the perception of our response led to a belief that we were weak and could be attacked with mild consequences. The same applies to Israel.

That is one part of the PR war now. Israel needs to look strong to its enemies. If it doesn't, they (and the US) look weak and are more likely to be attacked again.

The civilian deaths issues is another part of the PR war - just as I wrote the first part of this sentence, a Wall Street Journal editorialist on Fox News made the point that an accident that kills too many civilians could force a premature end to the fighting. Such accidents are inevitable if the conflict goes on too long.

Now the editorialist is saying that "Hezbollah has to be seen to be defeated, no matter what the casualty figures are. Exactly!

I feel like a transcriptionist - they are making the same arguments I am as I write.

We can criticize intolerance. Slavery. Islam's treatment of women. Violence. We can try to remove the hate from their textbooks--and widen their view of history. We can even bump off their most extremist clerics.

But demonizing the whole religion is stupid. Our enemies aren't billions of people. We need most of those people to completely reject their own extremists. And they will. As the people who just wish to lead normal lives discover that it's their own extremists who slaughter them to prevent that, they will cry out 'enough'! Unfortunately it will take much pain, suffering, and death by the extremists hands before that occurs.

Any war on Islam from the West would be totally counterproductive. A culture that has a tendency to blame the other and not look to itself would only become defensive and united. And that would doom all of them.

I know you defend Israel. That's not the problem. I see you talking about a massive offensive in the South instead of what they've been doing.

Well, as I said, the Israelis had to take out the infrastructure as much as they could. And that meant bombing the runways, the relay towers, some oil storage areas, the Hezbollah conclaves in Beirut and its suburbs. Command and Control centers wherever they've identified them. The roads, the bridges, whatever else.

Besides, as Wretchard conjectured, the IAF bombings showed Nasrallah that the Israelis were not just going for the immediate targets, they were after HIM and his entire organization.

Syl I disagree. Criticizing "intolerance, violence, slavery, etc." is trying to treat cancer with a bandaid.

This is equivalent to the cold war. This is about an ideology (theology) that supports and demands all of those individual items. We need to attack the root cause which is the religion of the Islamofascists which THEY CLAIM is the "true" Islam.

By all means we must criticize all of those items but we have to do it in the context in which it exists, namely the religion. Then and only then, maybe (I ain't real sanguine here) the MMM will step up and say AND DO something about the "extremists".

Look at the polls in Britain and elsewhere to see how much support these violent scum have from the community of ISLAM. There is a damn large minority if not majority that support this as acceptable RELIGIOUS warfare against the infidel. Their internecine clashes are not relevant to us except if we can exploit them.

Read Memri and see what the most prestigious leaders from the main government supported mosques in Egypt and SA have to say and then show me why we don't have to confront the religion.

A couple of points,just because the enemy has constructed fortifications in depth,does not mean that the Israelis are obliged to attack them,any more than the Germans had to attack the Maginot Line.

Religion,Yes,those Aztecs,celebrating their diversity,killing for their Go,a bit passe,but hey!

July 28, 2006: Sleepless in you-know-where

Comments

Post a comment

Email This Post