March 14, 2005: Beirut! Beirut! Beirut!

The biggest demonstration yet (800,000... a million who knows...) on the streets of Beirut - this time from the pro-democracy side. How thrilling it is to see this! Let's all pray (even we agnostics) for continued non-violence.

UPDATE: The Al-Jazeera coverage is worth reading on many levels. Also always worth in look during this excitement is the Lebanon Daily Star which has some disquieting reports of violence, though sporadic so far.

MORE: Turkey's Zaman Online is reporting the number of anti-Syria/pro-democracy demonstrators in Beirut to be "nearly two million"! Isn't the population of Lebanon itself only slightly above three million?

Comments

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(The Al-Jazeera link goes to USA Today)

Posted by: Peter G. at March 14, 2005 7:52 AM

Wow. That's 25% of the real Lebanese population talking!

I particularly enjoyed this observation: "Syria out, no half measures," read a banner, borrowing from President Bush's description of Damascus' gradual withdrawal..."

I think we have a winner in the demonstration contest, as I don't think Assad or Hizzbolah can or would try to out do this gathering. But what next, then? It's anyone's bet.

Posted by: Bruce W. at March 14, 2005 8:04 AM

And here in Los Angeles, KTLA has live coverage of Michael Jackson's pajamas and not one frame of footage of 1,000,000 people demanding their freedom. Shame on them.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at March 14, 2005 8:18 AM

It must be especially jarring to turn the channel to al Jazeera and see scenes of the Lebanese streets outlined by red-green-white flags.

Posted by: Lola at March 14, 2005 8:19 AM

Publius Pundit has a good thread going with a broad range of coverage.

I esp like the "human tsunami" meme that has grown out of this.

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=658

Posted by: Keith_Indy at March 14, 2005 8:26 AM

Lebanese posters and bloggers are reporting villages literally emptying to go join the marches.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at March 14, 2005 8:32 AM

There's some video clips at this blog, in case you need to see moving pictures for proof ...

http://www.savelebanon.org/serendipity/

Posted by: Lola at March 14, 2005 8:35 AM

The impressive thing is that this demo is organized. That indicates that there is a core group of people with an agenda and a plan to push forward political change in Lebanon.

I hope that they have arranged for marches in London and Paris and Berlin too. Momentum has to be maintained.

I wonder if they are watching in Teheran? Hmmm.

Posted by: TedM at March 14, 2005 8:46 AM

The CIA's World Factbook listing for Lebanon puts the population at 3.77 million.

While I have no faith in the media's ability to estimate the size of crowds this demonstration looks to be something close to the World's Biggest Block Party. Go Lebanon! Who's to say how this will turn out but anything that makes life miserable for the Syrian regime is OK in my book.

Posted by: Knucklehead at March 14, 2005 8:47 AM

"All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: the United States will not ignore your oppression, or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you."

It appears that the Lebanese people have taken W's inaugural promise to heart. Syria and Hezbollah will not be able to suppress the democracy movement in Lebanon. In fact, it would be no surprise at all to see Syria's regime fall to a democratic onslaught.

2005 may turn out to be 1989 for the ME. The press will say that W had as much to do with the success of the ME democracy movement as Reagan did with the fall of the USSR - and they'll be right.

The French are going to have to set up a retirement community for fallen dictators. Or reopen Devil's Island?

Posted by: Rick Ballard at March 14, 2005 9:15 AM

To get a real feel for the sea of humanity there, I highly suggest you got to the link in Lola's comment (several above, and thank you Lola) and select the 2:00 video clip.

It is hard to fathom the size without the visual. But I wonder how many Pro-Lebanese Syrians were bussed in?

Posted by: Bruce W. at March 14, 2005 9:18 AM

"You call that a demonstration? I'll give you a demonstration."
----Lebanese people to the pro-Syria forces.

Posted by: neo-neocon at March 14, 2005 9:24 AM

Turkey still has anti-Syrian sentiments despite the recent warming of their relationship?
So maybe Turkish paper would be motivated to report an anti-Syrian rally?

PICTURE
http://www.publiuspundit.com/pictures/z18_demo_size.jpg

subscription required for the article below -
http://lebanonwire.com/0503/05031402AFP.asp
March 14, 2005
Lebanonwire
800,000 pack Beirut for opposition rally
by Nathaniel Harrison

BEIRUT - An emboldened Lebanese opposition mobilized more than 800,000 people Monday to demand an end to Syrian military domination of Lebanon, hurling a potent challenge to the Syrian-backed government here.

Beirut city official Mounib Nassereddine said the estimate of 800,000 did did not include demonstrators who were still arriving from all parts of the country ahead of the rally.

Thousands of Lebanese had made their way throughout the morning to the capital by car, bus and boat, heading for Martyrs Square and the grave of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, assassinated exactly one month ago in a bomb blast.

Lebanese television aired spectacular pictures of a massive throng in the square, showing thousands of demonstrators waving the red, white and green Lebanese flag in bright sunshine against the deep blue of the Mediterranean in the background.

Nassereddine said Monday's gathering was "at least two and a half times" larger than last Tuesday's turnout called by pro-Syrian Lebanese parties, notably the Shiite Muslim movement Hezbollah. AFP correspondents estimated the crowd last week at 400,000.

"Hezbollah organized a giant demonstration last Tuesday to intimidate us," said Nada, 35, as she travelled to Beirut from Zahle in the east."Today we're taking up the challenge and invite it to join us because we represent the true majority of the country."

Added Anwar: "The Syrian people are our brothers. We have ties that go back centuries but the Syrian army and the mukhabarat (intellence service) are no longer welcome in Lebanon."

Huguette Yamine, a 57, said Monday's poltical demonstration was her first.

"I came with 10 family members. We walked here all the way from the other side of Beirut. We've had enough. I want my children to live in a free and democratic Lebanon."

Hariri's killing is widely blamed here on Syria and has energized an opposition movement aimed at forcing the withdrawal of all Syrian military and intelligence units from the country.

Lebanese MP Marwan Hamade, the official opening speaker, also charged that Lebanese and Syrian intelligence services were hiding the truth behind the assassination.

"You want the truth on the assassination?" he asked. "It's lying in the dark chambers of the (Syrian-Lebanese) intelligence services that are ruling us and that you are in the process of sweeping out."

"They killed (Hariri) because he was thwarting their plan to make Lebanon submit. They killed him because they are the enemies of democracy and Arabism," Hamade declared.

Syria has denied involvement in the assassination and on Saturday Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gave a commitment to a UN envoy to carry out the pullback in accordance with a United Nations Security Council resolution.

Syrian forces in Lebanon numbered about 14,000 at the time of Hariri's murder but have since begun a redeployment, leaving north Lebanon and the mountains over Beirut for points further east on their way home across the border.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the Syrian pledge as "positive" but said Washington would continue to press for full compliance with UN Resolution 1559, approved last September.

But in indication of the diplomatic difficulties that lie ahead, Lahoud insisted Sunday that the date of a final pullout would be determined by Lebanese and Syrian authorities.

Syrian Expatriates Minister Bussaina Shaaban nonetheless told CNN Sunday that Syrian forces would likely be out of Lebanon before legislative elections there that are in principle expected to take place before the end of May.

Monday's rally will in effect respond to a huge demonstration Sunday in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatiyeh, where 200,000 to 300,000 people turned out to denounce the UN pullout resolution, seen as gross foreign interference, and to express gratitude to Syria for its role in Lebanon.

In some quarters, notably the country's Shia Muslim community, Syria is seen as having preserved Lebanese stability in the aftermath of the country's devastating 1975-1990 civil war.

Many Shia Muslims, who make up about 30 percent of the population, are grateful to Syria for having supported their struggle for mainstream political power after decades of exclusion.

Syrian forces entered Lebanon in 1976 to serve as a buffer between warring Lebanese factions and at one point numbered 40,000.

Hariri's assassination also plunged Lebanon into political crisis, forcing the resignation February 28 of Prime Minister Omar Karameh in the face of public fury.

But Karameh was called back to the premiership by Lahoud 10 days later, only to find his appeal for a government of national unity rebuffed by the opposition.

Posted by: Mike_Nargizian at March 14, 2005 9:35 AM

The miracles of our electronic age. We're no longer dependent on elites telling us what's going on. And, this just energizes people! Amazing.

Posted by: Carol_Herman at March 14, 2005 10:27 AM

I guess I'm sorta an agnostic-type feller, too, Roger, but when I see this the first thing that pops into my mind is to thank God.

I'd just turned on some Bluegrass sacred music--for the banjoes and high harmony, not w spititual moment necessarily, and clicked into this site just as the old appalachians were swelling up in the background...and it was just so suddenly wet-eyes clear, we are worth something as individuals, we are something special if w're humble enough...it's all the same, them old mountain folk who made this music two hundred years ago, the Lebanese kids, everybody wants the same thing, always have, always will. We just do not live by bread alone.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 10:43 AM

Srory fro teh tpyos.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 10:48 AM

Yo, Yama, this one's for you, bro: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/050314/481/bei11503141806

Posted by: Knucklehead at March 14, 2005 10:53 AM

It's ironic that the Pro-Syrian demonstrators a few days ago were shouting "No foreign involvement!" At least, according to BBC Radio they were. I don't know Arabic.

Of course, they were talking about everyone but Syria.

Posted by: Pionar at March 14, 2005 11:08 AM

check out the video clip from 6:00 at the link Lola mentioned above http://www.savelebanon.org/serendipity/
I especially like the banner "ZOOM IN we're all Lebanese"

The 5:00 clip has long shots of the crowd too - I found the 2:00 clip not as clear.

Anyone want to wager that there will now be appeasement gestures to the opposition like there were to Hezbollah after they engineered the pro-Syria demonstration? Anyone? Nah, I retract that, I think it's (sadly) a losing bet. But if there aren't, it shows how much international pull terror still holds. When Hezbollah looked like it may come out on top, boy did the flag waving from OTHER countries go underground quickly!

Posted by: socalgal at March 14, 2005 11:09 AM

I don't ever remember seeing such a crowd. Not even the Hizbellah can ignore this.

I hope this works out, I would hate to see these folks fail. They have earned something here.

Posted by: Terrye at March 14, 2005 11:17 AM

Please god let the Sixth Fleet be over the horizon. If these people need support, we must give it to them.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at March 14, 2005 11:23 AM

Endless topic:

And here in Los Angeles, KTLA has live coverage of Michael Jackson's pajamas and not one frame of footage of 1,000,000 people demanding their freedom. Shame on them.

Shame?

Why did Mario Vasquez quit American Idol after finally taking off his hat?

What is it that Rob and/or Amber (though it looks from the tease like it's Rob) balk at eating on The Amazing Race is it 6?

What is taking the Robert Blake jury so long?

BREAKING...

Federal regulators ruled Monday there was nothing indecent about a steamy introductory segment to ABC's "Monday Night Football" featuring actress Nicollette Sheridan jumping into the arms of football player Terrell Owens.

Shame?

Al Swearengen: "Sometimes I wish we could just hit 'em over the head, rob 'em, and throw their bodies in the creek."
Cy Tolliver: "But that would be wrong. "

On Topic:

Swearengen: "Even money, this'll end in a bloodbath."

Posted by: Patrick Tyson at March 14, 2005 11:30 AM

You wonder if those idiots in Syria would be dumb enough to try and repress the Lebanese with violence... and give us an excuse to send Syria a message with a few of our jets?
In a perfect world, the animals at the head of Hezbollah would all be captured, disarmed and tried for their murders.

Posted by: Mike_Nargizian at March 14, 2005 11:32 AM

Rick B,

2005 may turn out to be 1989 for the ME

Beware irrational exuberance. I'd say it's more like 1981, with Solidarnosc in Poland just beginning to rock the Empire's boat. It took another 8 years for the Wall to fall, and then it took Romania, Bulgaria, Czech, Slovakia and Ukraine another decade+ to make inroads against rampant thuggery and/or banditry.

Lots of reverses and dark days to come.

Posted by: thibaud at March 14, 2005 11:36 AM

Knucklehead,

The wife told me to tell you that since it is for the cause of liberty I am allowed to look. She told me to tell you this particular woman has undoubtedly motivated a good many men to get up of the couch and protest, but she is not my type. She also told me to tell you how happy she is the women of Lebanon are standing up for their freedom, and the men, like men everywhere, will do whatever the women want. She is very optimistic. She has now told me to shut the computer off and take out the trash. (Man, Japan is a sexist country.)

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 11:36 AM

The whole world is sexist that way, Yama. Its a terrible thing. I feel your pain, honest (in my knees today - floors needed warshin).

Posted by: Knucklehead at March 14, 2005 12:02 PM

Oh, boy, do we ever have it better over here, Yama. We men do whatever the heck we feel like doing, as soon as the girls tell us what it is we feel like doing.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 12:03 PM

Plus, you know, they like Braveheart.

Posted by: someone at March 14, 2005 12:05 PM

Please god let the Sixth Fleet be over the horizon. If these people need support, we must give it to them.

I've been keeping an ear out for news on the Sixth Fleet. A couple of days ago I decided the silence might be revealing.

Who's next? France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany? Seems to me they could all use a dose of liberty. Democracy alone doesn't do the trick.

Posted by: chuck at March 14, 2005 12:05 PM

The Lebanese would've been SO much better off with John Gore or Al Kerry as USA prez. None of this trouble would be happening.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 12:23 PM

Gotta love this AP Headline:

Thousands March Against Syria in Beirut.

At least they're a bit closer in the first sentence:

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -- Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators chanted "Freedom, sovereignty, independence," and waved a sea of Lebanese flags in Beirut on Monday, the biggest anti-Syrian protest yet in the opposition's duel of street rallies with supporters of the Damascus-backed government.

Posted by: Sierra Sanity at March 14, 2005 12:25 PM

Roger:

I flipped on MSNBC to see how they covered this story. I don't have transcripts but I did catch this bon mots. " Thousands of Lebanese filled the center of Beirut to protest Syrian troops" Thousands? Couldn't they at least have said 'somewhere between 200,000 and 600,000" just to give their viewers a clue. They also followed with a mention of the Hizzbollah protest with hundreds of thousands last week. Then they had to mention that many experts fear violence and are worried that things could get out of control. What should be joyous news for everyone scares MSNBC.Will the LA Times follow with a repeat of their "Syria: The Devil We Know" tribute to the joys of Syrian stability.

Posted by: Kevin P at March 14, 2005 12:36 PM

Roger:

P.S.- How did Rove get all those red state christians and Israeli Jews into Lebanon without anyone catching him?

Posted by: Kevin P at March 14, 2005 12:54 PM

Roger:

P.S.- How did Rove get all those red state christians and Israeli Jews into Lebanon without anyone catching him?

Posted by: Kevin P at March 14, 2005 12:54 PM

Guys . . . check out this post by Publius Pundit about how upset the Iraqis are about this article in a Jordanian newspaper . . .

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=660

Yeesh . . .

Posted by: Lola at March 14, 2005 1:00 PM

Usually we're seeing American flags being burned. But now they're burning flags from other Arab countries . .

http://www.natashatynes.org/mental_mayhem/2005/03/alghad_article_.html

These are strange times that we live in, ideed.

Posted by: Lola at March 14, 2005 1:04 PM

Then they had to mention that many experts fear violence and are worried that things could get out of control.

Ah, the ubiquitous "experts." One of the lovely things to experience over the last couple of years is the exposure of the cluelessness of insular experts. The very word has become a cross between a joke and an insult.

Posted by: chuck at March 14, 2005 1:36 PM

Lola: "Usually we're seeing American flags being burned. But now they're burning flags from other Arab countries"

You failed to mention the standard burning of the Israeli flag. But some Iraqis did not miss the opportunity, as they could not stop themselves from painting a Star of David in the middle of the Jordanian flag (as the blog owner herself criticized in the Mental Mayhem site you linked to).

There's quite a ways to go yet. As one arab commenter to her site noted:

"The Arab masses are still largely ignorant. We are very emotional people who do not stop for a second to think rationally with the pieces of crap we carry in our skulls."

I hope he's not entirely correct.

Posted by: Bruce W. at March 14, 2005 1:51 PM

What's with Lebanese democracy and cleavage? Not that I'm complaining but I was under the impression that the "Arab Street" was extremely conservative and always covered their wimmen up. Me thinks there is a lot more, shall we say, cultural diversity than we were lead to believe by the usual posse of experts.

Posted by: PeterArgus at March 14, 2005 1:55 PM

PeterArgus,

The road to liberty is paved with brave displays of cleavage. Or something like that. I should have left this to Yama, he's got this women and their effect upon democracy thing all thought out. Me? I just do what she tells me when she tells me to do it.

Posted by: Knucklehead at March 14, 2005 2:05 PM

What's with Lebanese democracy and cleavage?

It's traditional.

Posted by: chuck at March 14, 2005 2:15 PM

PeterArgus:

Before the civil war, Beirut was the most cosmopolitan of Arab cities (and was even referred to as "the Paris of the Middle East" or something akin to that). It seems that spirit has never been choked out altogether.

Hey, if it helps bring a few otherwise lazy Lebanese to the town square, carry on!

Posted by: Bruce W. at March 14, 2005 2:15 PM

"Your eyes, they deceive you. Go home. There is nothing going on here but the normal, every day bustle of the Lebanese market place."

Posted by: Stephen_M at March 14, 2005 2:19 PM

Cultural too. (You can thank me later, guys. Right now you need to writing your checks for $39.95)

Posted by: Knucklehead at March 14, 2005 2:26 PM

Knuck,

I'm back from taking out the trash. I'd post my crack-pot theories under the title of Motivating the Lazy Male to Throw Off the Shackles of Oppression: The Arab Street, Democracy, and Women--the Middle East Juan Cole Will Never Understand, but the wife says I'm late for work, and I still haven't washed the dishes. So Knuck, take it away, I'm sure you have this, along with everything else, more thought out than me.

Just thinking out loud here, but am I wrong to think the French haven't had just a little bit of a positive influence in Lebanon: on fashion and the tradition of large, festive protests. At the very least Lebanon seems less scarred by the disturbing side of French influence than other countries within its historical sphere of influence--from Haiti to Rwanda and all the failed states in between.

Keep your fingers crossed. If the neo-cons are right and Lebanon and Iraq are falling dominoes, Syria can't survive. Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain is a nice chain. Throw in Jordan and a lot of problems are solved. Way out prediction. The closer Iran comes to the bomb the greater the chance of the House of Saud pulling a Sadat and establishing relations with Israel.

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 2:48 PM

Cleavage is a social construct of the zionist imperialist dogs. It's all in your dirty minds.

Freedom is not breaking out, busting forth, protruding in great heaving mounds of liberty.

Posted by: Old Dad at March 14, 2005 2:56 PM

Me, too, old dad, I couldn't thinking of liberty and liberty and freedom and freedom.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 3:18 PM

On "experts": Just remember, an "expert" is a former drip under pressure.

It's an old one, but it seemed appropriate in this context.

Posted by: Steven Mitchell at March 14, 2005 3:36 PM

Thibaud,
I would say that in principle you are right and we are closer to 1981 than 1989 when comparing timescales of liberation of ME to that of Eastern Europe. But there is a crucial difference: in 1981 when Solidarity was crushed, the Soviets knew that no matter what, the US would not go after them militarily. Can any ME dictator be sure of that today?

Posted by: Katherine at March 14, 2005 4:14 PM

Meanwhile, here's a bombshell from NYT . . . there was WMD in Iraq in 2003. Gotta log in to view this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/13/international/middleeast/13loot.html?

Here's an excerpt:

"In the weeks after Baghdad fell in April 2003, looters systematically dismantled and removed tons of machinery from Saddam Hussein's most important weapons installations, including some with high-precision equipment capable of making parts for nuclear arms, a senior Iraqi official said this week in the government's first extensive comments on the looting... Sami al-Araji, the deputy minister of industry, said it appeared that a highly organized operation had pinpointed specific plants in search of valuable equipment, some of which could be used for both military and civilian applications, and carted the machinery away... Dr. Araji said that if the equipment had left the country, its most likely destination was a neighboring state."

So . . . all that looting was just a disguise in order to smuggle the WMDs out . . .

Posted by: Lola at March 14, 2005 4:22 PM

Lola,

“Lalala, I can’t hear you!… Bush lied people died!”

Posted by: Katherine at March 14, 2005 4:53 PM

I believe it was P.J. O'Rourke who came up with the "pretty girl" theory of politics. That is, look at which side has the pretty girls. That's the side that is likely to win.

Posted by: Dishman at March 14, 2005 4:54 PM

US Committee for a Free Lebanon President Ziad K. Abdelnour calls key members of the US Administration to assist implementing Presidential Term Limits in the Middle East, criticizing Arab leaders for ruling for an entire generation

Posted by: nikita at March 14, 2005 4:55 PM

I'm glad Katherine has shown up just in time to focus our conversation again. She makes a very important point. As I learned from Dr. Rice over the weekend, Mark Twain said, history doesn't repeat but sometimes rhymes. The current poem has a beat being kept by an awfully big stick pounding right in the heart of the region. And by the sixth fleet in the Mediterranean. And is accompanied by rhetoric from the White House that has all but erased sixty years of bi-partisan foreign policy (He's a s.o.b but my s.o.b.). Not to mention we have twenty four hour satellite television, the internet, and bombs that can be dropped on someone's lap. Unlike in 1981, people are taking risks for freedom not in the hope that America will come and join them, but with the knowledge that Bush is ahead of the curve waving them on. I agree with Thibaud that a lot of stuff is going to hit the fan, but I also think a lot of tyrants could be in Paris very soon, or doing their best impression of George Washington at Mount Vernon.

CNN's Anderson Cooper is in Lebanon and it's like one big neo-con propaganda film. All the "we love America" and "George Bush, number one" plants in the audience. I mean really. I don't get Fox in these parts, but I don't know how they can possibly top this Rove driven propaganda. C'mon Iran, join the conspiracy!

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 5:12 PM

Yama,

The Sixth Fleet is very handy but the 3ID is only a hard days drive from Beirut. They might hit a little traffic in Damascus but it wouldn't slow them down much. Did you know that the air bases in the Western Desert are only about 15 minutes from Damascus (17 from Beirut)? I bet Assad does.

Posted by: Rick Ballard at March 14, 2005 5:32 PM

Buddy,

Liberty and Freedom....Freedom and Liberty.

Any way you spell it.

What a pair!

P.S. I apologize to anyone who might think that I make light of this most meaty topic, for indeed, I firmly believe that freedom and liberty are mother's milk to budding democracies. Mr. Larsen will have to apologize for himself.

Posted by: Old Dad at March 14, 2005 5:36 PM

Rick Ballard:

The slower and more dim witted amongst us (me) think that such close proximity to the enemy might have been one of the President's strategic objectives for OIF.

I realize how stupid that claim seems given that WMD have apparently not been found, but then, perhaps, were.

It occurs to me that someone must have considered that the 3rd ID could take a hard left from Baghdad while the Israeli Army could follow Saint Paul's famous route from Jerusalem and meet in Damascus.

Just guessing.

;)

Posted by: Old Dad at March 14, 2005 5:46 PM

Yes, freedom and liberty...sure hope that photographer is around whenever those things get turned loose!

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 5:50 PM

Rick,

I was only thinking that a carrier group of the coast of Lebanon might help some people focus better. Not to close: but close enough to be see non a clear day if you squint just right. Fifteen minutes? Now that is very close. Was the 3ID the cavalry whose horses weren't allowed a passage through Turkey and thus missed all the action the last time?

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 5:52 PM

Old Dad, yes, meet and build a big billboard to the Despots "We told you to cut it out. Vot, you thought ve vere kidding?"

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 6:03 PM

richard mcenroe,

Good news, the fleet's at sea!

Linky: http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/news/.www/status.html

Basically, we have a force in the Persian Gulf, another outside the Gulf, could be routed to the Med if need be, and two carriers / six amphibs in the Atlantic. Assuming they join a command ship currently in Lisbon harbor, their next stop might be the Med. If all this is quiet deployment, instead of relief/rotation, that represents an overwhelming force the Bashar to contend with.

Oh, to have the Depends contract in Damascus...

Posted by: PSGInfinity at March 14, 2005 6:07 PM

Yama, I believe you're thinking of these guys.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 6:08 PM

The Cavalry is not too far from Lebanon and if somebody makes sure that those boys see some of these pretty girls, they might be getting volunteers to go lend a hand if it is needed.

Posted by: Terrye at March 14, 2005 6:10 PM

Yama,

The 3ID raced the 1stMEF to Baghdad (and won), The 4AD got stuck on the boats. The 3ID has been home and is back again. The 4AD will be the one to make the Arbil/Teheran drive (if necessary). Or maybe the Basra/Riyadh drive (we can always hope).

Damascus, Teheran and Riyadh are all about equivalent distances from the Iraqi air bases near their respective borders. As Old Dad mentions, it almost seems as if their were some sort of strategic plan - but that's impossible, everyone knows that there were no plans.

"When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you."

Posted by: Rick Ballard at March 14, 2005 6:15 PM

Thanks for the military lesson.

Another question. Is this really Bill Clinton's blog? And did Bill really write:

"There are also people, who think you need to give Bashar Assad incentives to behave more responsibly, to make him stop supporting terrorists in Lebanon and Israel. This is nonsense. It took me almost eight years to understand that our way of thinking is not their way of thinking. Their way, I mean a country's dictator's way of thinking."

It took him almost eight years?

And:

"The only way to stop Syria from being a constant threat and stop them from spreading chaos is to topple the minority government of Bashar Assad and let the majority of Syrians rule.

President Bush did this in Iraq and now that the majority Shia are in power, Iraq is looking inwards, trying to make the lives of its people better. That is what democracies do, they look inward instead of threatening their neighbors, the United States or Israel or the oil supply and with that the world economy. Majority rule means peace. Minority rule, like Bashar Assad?s dictatorship means chaos, terrorism and war."

posted by Bill Clinton at 7:43 AM

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 6:53 PM

Some great pictures of the Lebanon protest/rally/demonstration/census count/photo shoot here.

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 7:01 PM

"There are also people, who think you need to give Bashar Assad incentives to behave more responsibly, to make him stop supporting terrorists in Lebanon and Israel."

Does Bill also think the Europeans' rewards and incentives program for the nuclearizing and terrorizing Mullahs is inane, as well? Oh, sorry, the Mullahs aren't dicators and Iran is a democracy chock-full of "progressives". Nevermind.

Posted by: charlotte at March 14, 2005 7:09 PM

yama-arashi,

Thanks for the link. Clinton sounds just like a neocon, doesn't he. Athough that eight years makes him a bit slow -- perhaps the result of too much education? Anyway, very interesting.

Posted by: chuck at March 14, 2005 7:12 PM

Isn't this great! I hope it continues. I hope Nasrallah and Iran get the message. Who knows? Maybe the people of Iran will stop being afraid of those old Mullahs and their thugs, the Basiji, and will turn on them and join the revolution!

CHANGE IS HERE AND FREEDOM IS ON THE MARCH!

Posted by: foreign devil at March 14, 2005 7:16 PM

It is great to see people who long to be free express themselves. Obviously, the demonstration was organized. I hope this shows the foundation for a government of a free Lebanon exists.

The fact that we have a significant military presence in Iraq and the region makes it harder for the thugs to retaliate. If Lebanon can make a peaceful transition, which country will be next. I believe all people want to be free.

There will be twists and turns in the road because you can expect every despot, terrorist and dictator to simply abdicate. Just think of how real estate prices in Paris will increase if all of these turkeys want to buy the best locations with looted funds.

Posted by: Barrett at March 14, 2005 7:19 PM

Charlotte,

Well said!!

I can't believe Bill wrote this. Is it really him? It seems absolutely damning. He is basically admitting he was played like the fool he is for "almost eight years." Almost? I wonder when wisdom burst through the oval office windows and wisened him up. Oh yes, we all remember the very successful last six monthts of his Presidency. Arafat, of course, wasn't a dictator. Iran is progressive. I'm going to have to take notes and make flow charts.

Don't most of us learn this important lesson about dictactors during recess in the first grade? Bush did.

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 7:23 PM

Chuck,

I can't get over that sentence. "....almost eight years." It takes a lot of education to become that stupid. Or, possibly, a lack of reflection, an unwillingness to know thyself, if in fact you fit the mold of a tyrant. Too much like them to see them for what they are?

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 7:27 PM

Dishman — Then with 100,000 Lebanese Pasionaras to choose from, old Peej would be in hog heaven.

I'd just as soon see the Israelis look to nailing down their own border in the case of a conflict, for simplicity's sake, but if they got into it, it would be the biggest race of armies since Patton decided to beat Monty to Messina...

Chuck — I'm sure Clinton is quite the tough guy, now that someone else is taking resonsibility for the decisions. What's that word again? "Chickenhawk?"

Rick Ballard — How about the Paris/Studio City run? (C'mon, gimme something here...)

Posted by: richard mcenroe at March 14, 2005 7:27 PM

I feel like I'm in that new Godzilla I watched the other night (kids defeated him w/ brand new digi-gadgets), being dragged away screaming NO NO NO, but no matter how disgusting, painful and terrifying, somebody should pat the prodigal son on his fluffy hairdo: Clinton's early prez-world was the end-o-history Fallen-Wall world, he didn't stink the whole eight years. Clinton MidEast stink didn't come up strong until after the East Afican Embassy bombings, and the gallery-playing Kabuki-dance with post-Oslo Arafat. But yes; peee-yewww.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 8:12 PM

And (oh, I can't stand this, really, but) you gotta give him points for that absolutely breathtaking 'almost eight-years' statement. FINALLY, he's getting aquainted with 'Truth'. But, you know, hold onto your wallets and purses, and keep a count on the silverware.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 14, 2005 8:20 PM

Buddy,

FINALLY, he's getting aquainted with 'Truth'.

I think it's gonna be a one night stand. But it is also big of you to give him points.

(Now Glenn has been posting a lot of beautiful images from Lebanon but I think he'll draw the line here. What do you think? Too patriotic?)

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 9:16 PM

The more I read about this rally, and the more I look at the photos, the more amazed I become. It seems that the Hariri assasination may have "waked a sleeping giant"--the sleeping giant being the people of Lebanon. They were so quiet and so terrorized for so long.

Barrett, you say "obviously, the demonstration was organized." Apparently it was very well organized indeed, and the Internet and cellphones played a big part. See here for more.

Posted by: neo-neocon at March 14, 2005 9:40 PM

I love the Clinton blog. Some of it appears to be written by someone else talking about Clinton so I question the real author of that piece.

"Suddenly Mrs. Clinton opened the door. Everybody froze. Mrs. Clinton looked at all of us with her steely eyes. She said “I would like to thank all of you for your visit. We appreciate it very much”. She had a smile on her face, but she wasn’t smiling at all.

You must understand that Mrs. Clinton is totally different from Mr. Clinton. When Mr. Clinton is in the room all the aides have a lot of fun and we laugh and joke constantly, but when Mrs. Clinton enters the room all of us walk on egg shells. It just happens.

"Mrs. Clinton held the door open and everybody began leaving the room. I collected the newspapers I had given the president, took my bag and I was walking to the door, when Mrs. Clinton grabbed my arm tightly. She waited till everybody left. She said “I didn’t mean you, Bobbi”. I looked in her eyes and her eyes were so friendly."

It's like a melodrama! As Bill Clinton's hospital room turns!

Posted by: lindenen at March 14, 2005 9:54 PM

PSGInfinity,

Have a look at the page for the S-2 guys (Staff Intel, for non-military folks) for the 31st MEU in the North Arabian Sea. If that map is the Straits of Hormuz, then the guy on the left is pointing out a bit of the Iranian coast with his Ka-Bar... (evil grin)

Sleep tight, Mullahs!

Posted by: Cybrludite at March 14, 2005 10:01 PM

yama, knucklehead, old dad, etc...

Here is the reason the Lebanese enthusiasms for liberty and democracy are so difficult to keep under wraps.

Posted by: Morgan at March 14, 2005 10:03 PM

Yama,

“Don't most of us learn this important lesson about dictactors during recess in the first grade?”

Not when you are yourself a bully… as I expect our Billy was.

Lindenen,

The paragraphs you quote sound like excerpt from Primary Colors. Another Anonymous/Joe Klein in the making?

Posted by: Katherine at March 14, 2005 10:09 PM

Katherine,

Good point. I tried to get there in a later post, but clumsily. The bully?, or something akin to Carter and Kerry who I don't think were the bullies; in any case a basic awareness of the way things are was most certainly lacking. Still is. Buddy's tongue in cheek optimism notwithstanding.

Lindenen

"Some of it appears to be written by someone else talking about Clinton so I question the real author of that piece."

Each entry appears to end with a designation of the author. The entry I highlighted was "signed" by the former President. Is the whole blog a farce?Or is it really Bill and friends? The two, in the end, being the same no matter, but I am curious. I still am struck by "the almost eight years" statement and the ease in which the forty second President of the United States tells me he can't sleep and is passing time playing internet poker.

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 14, 2005 10:33 PM

Yama.

I am sure that if ever Bill bullied anybody it was for that anybody’s own good…and he believed in his own good intentions most sincerely. Very useful trait for a politician.

Posted by: Katherine at March 14, 2005 10:54 PM

Roger:

Clinton's "almost eight years" reminds me of Carter admitting that he had been "fooled" by the Soviets when they suprised him by invading Afghanistan. I will give Clinton points for recognizing the truth that Bush discovered in the first year of his administration but I guarantee you that both Carter and Clinton still think Bush is an idiot. And I am sure that President Bush doesn't give a rat's ass what those previous presidents think of him. Thats why he will accomplish great things and will be remembered while the "smart" ones will fade into the dustpan of history.

Posted by: Kevin P at March 14, 2005 11:20 PM

I wasn't around for Millard Fillmore (I was out of the country shoeing horses for the Hapsburg Empire), but if anyone can point out to me one single solitary area of American--or let's say non-criminal Earthling--life upon which Mr. Carter didn't have a spectacularly, monumentally disasterous effect, or if anyone can tell me why Mr. Carter is still so certain he was a fabulous success except for when everybody caught that case of Malaise which started going around in late '76, and when some bad foreign fellas got away with lying to him only because God had mistakenly told him to be trusting, and when the stupid economy raised inflation and interest rates to the low 20s just to be mean to him, then I'll eat my hat. Not my good one, but one of the old baseball caps. But at least he didn't do anything like, oh, I don't know, give the Panama Canal to the Narcotraficantes or something. What? Oh, he DID?

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 12:08 AM

"Senor Noriega. do you like Jimmy Carter?"

"Si."

"Well, would you like another bowlful?"

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 12:14 AM

President Windfall Prophet.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 12:19 AM

Yesterday's anti-Jordanian demonstrations in Iraq was also remarkable.

Today's NYT's profile of Jordanian mass murderer, a 32-year old "lawyer who had once lived in America, worked for the United Nations and liked cowboy hats and Harley-Davidsons" has set me on edge.

I'm curious to see how this story will impact on Jordanians. I certainly hope it challenges the tacit support for terrorism among Jordanians.

The Jordanian authorities are trying to unwind this story. The journalist who wrote the article was arrested for "publishing false information that harmed the country." (Jordanian blogger, Mental Mayhem)

Posted by: ganzo azul at March 15, 2005 7:21 AM

PSGinfinity:

Saw your link on LGF earlier and followed some stuff to the: http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/1877.asp

Seems as thought the Teddy R might just be heading for the Lebanese horizon.

Posted by: AlanC at March 15, 2005 8:47 AM

yama,

Yes, that's Clinton's blog. It's by turns hilarious, fascinating, brilliant and irritating-- in short, a perfect reflection of the man himself.

My favorite entries are

1) Bill's sneers at Howard Dean's arrogance (Dean cut him off at a personal meeting by saying "You got anything else?" ie, Gotta run, quit wasting this big man's valuable time);

2) his exasperation with Freddo, er, Roger C's dalliances with loan sharks in la-la-land

3) an account of Bill Tony and Bono's Excellent Davos Adventure, ie a late night jammin' and drankin' in a Davos hotel suite with Tony Blair and Bono

How much Bill and how much Bull? Who knows? As if we could ever separate the two. But highly entertaining.

Posted by: thibaud at March 15, 2005 9:27 AM

The Teddy Roosevelt? You GOT to be kidding!

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 9:44 AM

I guess any of our Carriers names have a symbolic link to lebanon...but Teddy, tossing out unwelcome third parties on the behalf of downtrodden second parties...well, "Bully!", in the old sense, the way Teddy used it. Anyhoo, kudos to the wizards in the five-sided building. If the TR is just rotation, then for everything else!

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 10:11 AM

Thibaud,

It really is the 42nd President of the United State's blog!??! I'm stunned. I read the entry on Davos, Tony asleep in the bathtub, and the healthy young woman from the panhandle passed out next to Bono. And then the entry above that, he is getting grief from the usual suspects for his remarks regarding Iran, and instead of addressing the substance of the issue he goes on and on about how he was a really, really, really good President, but time (what four years?) has not been kind to him and no one remembers anymore the wonderful nineties. Unbelievable.

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 15, 2005 10:14 AM

And no one leaves comments.

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 15, 2005 10:24 AM

Morgan,

Fascinating. Something tells me next big craze on the home front just might be Lebanese BBQ.

Posted by: Knucklehead at March 15, 2005 10:42 AM

I went to check Clinton’s Blog. I just cannot believe that this is not some kind of a joke. It’s latest entry “Home Chappaqua New York” is nothing but string of vapid clichés.

Bill is musing about the future. He was worried about the surgery, you see but now all he wants “to do is put this healing process behind me”. There is still so much to do and the world is simply waiting for his invaluable services. How could he let the humanity down?

After assuring us that he still has 20 years to go he familiarizes us with his decision making process:

“Just lying on my bed for days, made me understand how much I love my job. Whatever that job is nowadays, be it an educator, speechmaker, writer or peacemaker.”
(..)
“You know, for the first time in years I actually understood why Hillary wanted to be a public servant. It feels so good to serve other people. It feels so good to help other people. It’s the best feeling in the world to go to bed at night, thinking about your activities that day and knowing you had a positive impact in another person’s life.” (..)

This bit about “serving other people” actually got me rolling on the floor, almost as much as reading the salacious bits in the Ken Starr's report. Selfless Bill toiled for years to better his fellow man, never even once stopping to think about his own comfort and well being, sacrificing everything so that we, the little people could sleep safely in our beds and could put bread on our tables. Oh, those sleepless nights studying the minutia of national health care plan! Oh, the joy when finally after heavy toil you can sign into the law the tax increases! Sainthood is not enough for this man. I vote we start building him statues and worship him as a living god!

And then comes the momentous decision. Bill will not stop his selfless pursuit to serve others. No illness of frailty will prevent him from serving as…you guessed it… the UN Special Envoy!!!!!!

Good grief and gag me with a spoon.

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 11:18 AM

Knucklehead:

Is Weber publically traded?

Posted by: Morgan at March 15, 2005 12:04 PM

Er... publicly.

Posted by: Morgan at March 15, 2005 12:37 PM

Morgan,

Interesting link. I hope this freedom thing works out because I'd sure like to spend some time in Lebanon.

Katherine,

I'm with you. I can't believe it is real. I've gone back a few times and it is always there. I've pinched myself and I'm awake.

My favorite so far is his January 7th entry titled "Being Alone"

"Lately she's been spending more and more time in Washington. Isn't she interested in spending time with me anymore? Is it because Chelsea is gone now and all we got left is the two of us? Is that not enough for her?" It gets worse. And the constant whining about his legacy. I'd be embarrassed if my family's crazy uncle with the sixth grade education and one too many bumps on his head decided to keep a weblog this sappy, this trite, and shallow. I still can't believe this is real. Pathetic. That is the word.

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 15, 2005 12:57 PM

Yama,

Either this is one of the best satirical jobs on the Web yet, or we are witnessing desperate attempt to rewrite history and remain important by a has-been politician. It seems that Billy is moving directly into “late Carter” phase of ex-presidency. Irrelevance, the cruelest fate for a narcissist must be staring directly in his face.

But his blog provides a great comic relief, I give him that.

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 1:34 PM

I like his blog. He writes good. It is nice. He is nice. He makes me feel pretty. He does not use lon gwords.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 1:52 PM

“He makes me feel pretty.”

I would not put too much stock in that, Buddy, he made Monica feel pretty. Not that I doubt your prettiness…

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 2:14 PM

Ewww, Katherine, that was NOT the mental image i quite needed....

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 2:26 PM

He sounds like the class President of the Senior Class gearing up for the 25th reunion. (After not quite panning out in the real world.) Can you imagine if Hillary were to win and he's doing this from the White House.

He's going to put IowaHawk out of business. No. It is IowaHawk. I can't believe this is true.

I can't believe this man was President. Leader of the free world. "Brilliant."

Posted by: yama-arashi at March 15, 2005 2:35 PM

Yama, it's worse than you think. What you see is not his best writing--it is what he thinks is the best that the American people are capable of coping with. You see, whenever you plumb the dark side, and think you've touched bottom, you're always wrong, there's always another level down.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 2:43 PM

Sorry, Buddy :-)

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 2:53 PM

Yama,

“I can't believe this man was President. Leader of the free world.”

I have one word for you: handlers.

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 2:58 PM

S'okay, Katherine...at least you reminded me to brush nore often.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 2:59 PM

"Handlers"? Katherine !!!

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 3:08 PM

All right, Buddy, I am out of here….
:-)

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 3:21 PM

Okay, Katherine, here's my 'mental image' revenge: You're home alone, it's late, and your phone rings. It's Janet Reno. She wants to talk to you about these anti-Clinton comments. Your mind is racing as you clutch the phone and start to babble some excuses. Suddenly you feel a tap on your shoulder. You turn around and there she is! It's her, grinning, wearing nothing at all but a telephone headset, and holding an FBI badge in one hand and a bottle of gin in the other!

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 3:30 PM

Thanks Buddy! That is a nightmare that I will cherish, indeed.

Though I am not as much worried about somebody like Reno, as about those nice folks from IRS or Sacramento asking questions about $50 donation to Salvation Army that I lost a receipt for…and the donations to Cato Institute….

Trust me, if you want someone paranoid about governmental powers, that is me.

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 3:39 PM

Omigawrsh, me too. Until i gave up and sold it, I had a small biz, under FDA regulation. I had a bad day once and slightly insulted a field agent, after which I was inspected literally to the death of the biz. I never failed an inspection, but in a small shop, getting ready for the inspections was all we could do--marketing/sales (all those
how-to-grow-out-from-undercapitalization tasks) had to take back seat. After awhile i realized that a little circle of three desks were on my case and probably had bets on how long I could endure. Seeing a losing hand I sold out. This 90 day wonder inspector ruined 15 years of work. However, having been in that little hell, my new biz (losing the sales proceeds in the stock market) is ever so much more fun than it could've been otherwise! :-)

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 3:55 PM

Buddy,

“my new biz (losing the sales proceeds in the stock market) is ever so much more fun”

I can relate, oh, so painfully!

BTW, you had a business under FDA regulation? I am impressed! I thought that nobody was brave enough for that, unless one actually owns Merck or Pfizer.

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 4:14 PM

Now ya tells me. Nah, Ronald "be an entrepreneur" Reagan was president, we had four little kids and wife and I both were tired of me being gone all the time chasing drilling rigs all over the world. Brought up in suburbs, and reading about goat cheese (of the new California cuisine) in every airplane magazine, and wife and I both being old back-to-the-land hippies, i actually went into the goat cheese biz, from the ground-up, livestock, label, creamery and all--the new farmer/American dream in my own mind (laughs broken-down old shell sitting here typing). "Larsen Farms Texas Chevre", biggest producer in Texas thru first half of the 90s (you can be outstanding in your field if your field is small enough). Need to write a book about the whole adventure someday. Long/short, regulators can't bedevil lawyered-up Big Guys, so they moiders da shrimps, hippies wives turn 40 and run off to communes in Arizona with the livestock foreman, kids raised in the country can't wait to move to the city, and young fools learn everything the hard, hard, way so they can be old fools someday! :-)

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 7:33 PM

The problem for us first-wave boomers who're early retired is, "What the Hell? We ain't the HAPPENING people no mo'?"

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 15, 2005 8:18 PM

Hot damn, Buddy, goat cheese? Maybe you should consider coming back, this item is hotter than hot around where I live. Recently in a supermarket I saw Humboldt Fog for $21.99/pound and people cannot have enough of this sucker. The way to go is to call yourself a producer of an “artisan cheese”. Though you would still have the damn FDA on your back.

Incidentally, do you know that large cosmetic companies avoid making any real effective products because once a face cream “does something” it falls under jurisdiction of FDA? So they prefer to make creams and lotions with pleasant textures and nice fragrance to anything effective because it would cost them too much money to comply with FDA rules. Frankly, I have no idea how pharmaceutical companies ever manage to stay competitive. A bit of industry-government collusion must be taking place. The rules are definitively stacked against the small guys.

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 8:38 PM

PS. Buddy, write the book. Your story sounds riveting and we need all the info on the evil bastard government officials.

Posted by: Katherine at March 15, 2005 8:44 PM

Like Billy Bob Thornton said in "Sling Blade", Katherine, "I shore lak th' way yew tawk!" Those face creams, the Bentonite clay we use for under a dime a pound in drilling fluids (because it absorbs fluid and makes a 'gel' to slick up wellbores) is also sold in little decorator jars as face cream for over ten bucks an ounce. The 2,000 X markup is so's you don't hafta store a 100 bag in your garage. I think the cosmetics industry has the highest sector margins. With three daughters that's where I ought to be, anyway. Think I'll put it up in baggies (60s-style) and undercut the competition. Damn dairy goats, they're overbred for production and need more care than a Sun King French courtisan.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 16, 2005 5:58 AM

Back on thread--GWB just now named Head Neocon Wolfowitz to head the World Bank. I hate to LAUGH at my Democratic brothers and sisters, who before all those Araby elections & the Revolt of Lebanon were having so much fun excoriating "those Neocons"...so I'll restrain myself and just grin broadly.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 16, 2005 6:48 AM

Buddy,

If you ever go into the cosmetics business let me know. I have considerable expertise in skin biology on the research side and number of acquaintances in cosmetics industry. I have noticed that lately people with medical degrees are making most money (see dr brandt brand etc.), so my degree can be utilized to get those 2000x markups. I am already thinking about goat milk line, I am convinced that there are plenty of factors in it which can be used to make some good claims about efficacy of the product. Unless, of course, you have an aversion to goats, which would not surprise me. Smell might also be a factor. Well, let’s start with that Bentonite clay.

And – power to the neo-cons!

Posted by: Katherine at March 16, 2005 9:23 AM

Katherine, I was half-kidding but only half. I've been self-employed--even in the oil patch days I hired out under contract as a 'consultant', which has always meant 365 long days per year...and now that I'm retarded--i mean retired--I'M GOING CRAZY...jeez...an actual skin expert...research contacts...I've got a smidgen of capital...for awhile yet (*gulp*...*sweat*) anyway. I DO need another business...started trying to draw and paint and write but after 30 minutes realized that if i wanted to keep believing i had talent, I'd better stop quick ;-)

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 16, 2005 11:22 AM

Buddy,

I am only half joking myself. This is something I always wanted, but never managed to get a grasp of the business side. The key thing is actually producing the stuff. If anything, you know where to find me. I believe that Genetech started as an idle conversation, or so the gossip goes.

:-)

Posted by: Katherine at March 16, 2005 1:23 PM

reflecting, the problem with new business start-ups in late middle age (anything besides trading a few stocks) is, well, until some mysterious mental gong, you can just up and go where your nose leads you. You're basically a timeless being, and spending the odd lustrum or decade riding up box canyons is no big deal 'cuz yer gonna live forever. Then somewhere along time the next zero develops the '6' in front of it and all of a sudden you're jumpy and nervous. The next big time-eating venture is likely to be the last (*gulp*).

But then we have Bill-the-Merry Clinton telling us--three or four times in four or five paragraphs--that if you're his age (i am, to the year) there's 20 merry years left! Yee-Haw! So adios that crappy 'retired' attitude. All it does anyway is train a body to be a human rabbit, always feeling like it'll get et if its next move ain't the exact right move, always standing there twitchin' and watchin'.

But of all presidents, Bill Clinton. you'd think, is--to hear him talk--the last that should need reminding that there are actual people skewered out there on the sharp ends of the Agencies. Sad but true, no one should ever drift far from the knowledge that regardless of what they've put into it, or how much their family depends on it, or how friendly a manner they can work into it, any cypherbot with an agency badge--and that unlegislated way-too-broadly-written (by the agencies themselves) "administrative law"--can snuff their ass out on just any brief whim. If you complain, you're an instant 'rebel' who needs teaching a lesson. Those Agency career belts need scalps, and microscopic scalps are easy to get and better than nothin'.

That coping with Leviathan can so utterly negate the individual, is a towering revelation of that great Czech phrase, 'the incredible lightness of being'.

Ha, looking at the length of this post, there's another problem with free time! But, funny, just writing/thinking about this stuff--which I try to keep out-of-mind--is for the first time since I sold out 2-3 yrs ago, NOT setting me off into blinking rage. FINALLY it's receding enough to become merely academic. Ahh, progress? Hey, thanks, Katherine! You and Bubbah Clinton, bof o' y'all is busy hepin' de peoples!
:-)

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 16, 2005 2:07 PM

Hmm, my comment vaporized...what I said was, I'm gonna read up on the sector...where the entry points are in the distribution channels, mainly. And of course the regs. Line-production is my specialty. I have the facilities, paid fer, by gawrsh, finally. I'm less adept at zeroing in on exactly what the end-user really wants (besides value, value, & value). Luxury personal discretionaries are highly resistant to economic swings--even in bad times--especially in bad times--the $5 item gets in the cart because the SUV has to wait another year.

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 16, 2005 2:23 PM

Buddy,

You have made my day! If my scribbling can set you on a way to start thinking about new business things, I feel - gulp! – happy and humble. And scared a bit.

In all seriousness, if I can help, I am more than willing. Just let me know!

BTW, the end user wants a promise. A hope in a tube. Goodness, just check out the publications, anything that can give a whiff of increased collagen production in the dermis is a Holy Grail, regardless of the efficacy. Beauty of the cosmetics is that the trials are performed on volunteers and they are done by self-assessment. In addition, subjects who do not respond to the treatment are often kicked out from the sample and labeled “non- responders”. In practical terms imagine, what woman will admit that there are no positive effects on her skin if she pays $80/2oz of cream? There is no doubt, one need a very good base, very good fragrance – and a gimmick. I can easily dig out the current thinking on collagen stimulation; as far as I can tell oligopeptides and copper are currently in vogue, but I am sure that there is plenty of research in strictly scientific literature to point the direction. Plants extracts are always big because they allow to avoid the bastard regulators – the “all natural” factor. Something that actually might work is vitamin C, hence multitude of products with it, but if you go to the concentrations that may do you good, the skin usually becomes sensitized. So, the manufacturers put in low level of vitamins and hope for the best. I will give it more thought, too, but we should not be burning Roger’s bandwidth on this subject. When you want to talk, lets exchange emails. You can catch me here almost daily:-)

Posted by: Katherine at March 16, 2005 11:02 PM

katherine, yeh, I feel bad...but i'd just paypalled him a donation a few days ago. I don't know how to nav your addy out of this system, but I have a 'junk' addy where all goes into trash except subject lines i set up--just put in Kat and use m then g then bud then larsen then 'at' then cox then a dash then internet. I'll open anything without an attachment. Ah, the travails of the net, eh?

Posted by: Buddy Larsen at March 17, 2005 2:30 PM

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